Analytics
Yes is at 45.5%, up 3 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 2 May 2026.
Across the 183 daily closes on record from 2 May 2026 to 5 Nov 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 3 May 2026 and the lowest 42.5% on 2 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 46.5%; a month before, 55.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 61.5% on 3 May 2026.
Javier Milei is the favourite of the 21 outcomes in “Argentina Presidential Election Winner”, ahead of Axel Kicillof at 30.5%.
$823.24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $297.4K since listing. The order book holds $120.95K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $17.87K bought Yes and $14.85K bought No; the largest was a $10.5K buy of No at 50.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Violet Oracle 91DB with 17.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 61.2K. Ten wallets hold 74.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 25 Oct 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 183 points, 2 May 2026 – 5 Nov 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | 42.5% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 45.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 61.19K |
| Plata-O-Mierda | No | 41.35K |
| Violet Oracle 91DB | Yes | 17.92K |
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/argentina-presidential-election-winner
9 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Yes | 16.85K |
| bifurcatio | No | 15.59K |
| Mr.Atlas1 | Yes | 10.6K |
| maritime6307 | Yes | 7.85K |
| user098422 | Yes | 6.61K |
| CoffeeDespiser | Yes | 5.82K |
| Remote-Testing | Yes | 3.89K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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