Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.8%. Yes opened at 93% on 2 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 2 Mar 2026 to 3 Mar 2026, the highest close was 93.8% on 3 Mar 2026 and the lowest 93% on 2 Mar 2026. $119.4K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 2 Mar 2026 – 3 Mar 2026, chart shows 88%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2026 | 93.0% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | 93.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nsdesign17 | No | 4.33K |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 589.08 |
| Newshound | No | 511.3 |
| Jade Pulse 2941 | No | 322.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-usisrael-target-in-iran-by-march-31
| xpepepx | No | 315.85 |
| mmdstrike | No | 300 |
| 0xleo888 | No | 300 |
| count0 | No | 234.23 |
| 88mnm88 | No | 150 |
| Coral Quasar CEBB | No | 145.49 |
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