Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 76.8%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 28% on 2 Oct 2026 and the low 6.3% on 16 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 9.7% on 14 Sep 2026. $855 traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 32 points · 4 Sep 2026 – 5 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 23.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 23.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 501.01 |
| nani | Yes | 120 |
| a5533 | Yes | 16.26 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| firegold | Yes | 10 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 10 |
| man-enough | Yes | 5 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 1.37 |
| mustbethewater | No | 0.02 |
| Pitosyflautas | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ism-services-pmi-september-2026
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