Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 24 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 24 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.5% on 24 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 6.5% on 25 Mar 2026. $204.53K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 4:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 24 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | 14.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wangmao00 | Yes | 4.06K |
| 2117 | Yes | 2.64K |
| Cdus | Yes | 2.64K |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 1.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-sabotage-undersea-internet-cables-by-april-30
| rgess | Yes | 1.71K |
| ggby1 | Yes | 1K |
| anothertime | Yes | 750 |
| ReefCaptial | Yes | 625 |
| thingstodo | Yes | 539.62 |
| Addicted18 | Yes | 486.02 |
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