What is the “Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2023. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or… Resolution source: https://openai.com/.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($0) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 11 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 99.9% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 19, 11:05 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | Polymarket odds & analytics

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Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencewill-gpt-4-have-500b-parametersUpdated Jan 19, 2024

Closed

Scheduled close Dec 31, 2023

Yes

50.0%

Observed Yes 50¢Observed No 50¢

24h Volume

Scheduled close

Dec 31, 2023

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Mar 22, 2024

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 19, 2024

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

50.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

193.48 / 1.44K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

104

Wallets

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Jan 18, 12:00 AM

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Jan 18, 12:00 AM	77.5%	77.5%
Jan 17, 12:00 AM	77.5%	77.5%
Jan 16, 12:00 AM	58.5%	58.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2023. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or… Resolution source: https://openai.com/.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($0) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.