Question 1

What is the “Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2023. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or… Resolution source: https://openai.com/.

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($0) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 11 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 99.9% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 19, 11:05 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Happy-Judgment	No	883.72	43.0%	$883.72
Azure Tide E903	No	573.34	39.8%	$1.66K

Trader	Current holding value
Happy-Judgment	$441.86
Azure Tide E903	$254.46
okl	$32.47
Apt-Dime	$23.81
WagonBlq	$19.23
ambitious virus	$17.5
abra0	$12.4
Downright-Otter	$8.06
Official-Silo	$5.29
Indigo Falcon CF1A	$1.32
Bite-Sized-Doctorate	$0.77

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

Questions about this market