Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 328 daily closes on record from 17 Feb 2023 to 18 Jan 2024 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81% on 26 Jul 2023 and the lowest 27% on 27 Feb 2023. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 59.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 61% on 10 Mar 2023.
$144.16K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is okl with 65 shares; the largest No position is Happy-Judgment with 884.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 11:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 328 points, 17 Feb 2023 – 18 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2023 | 47.0% |
| 18 Jan 2024 | 77.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Happy-Judgment | No | 883.72 |
| Azure Tide E903 | No | 508.93 |
| okl | Yes | 64.94 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
Resolution source: https://openai.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters
| Apt-Dime |
| Yes |
| 47.62 |
| WagonBlq | Yes | 38.46 |
| ambitious virus | No | 35 |
| abra0 | Yes | 24.79 |
| Downright-Otter | Yes | 16.13 |
| Official-Silo | No | 10.58 |
| Indigo Falcon CF1A | No | 2.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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