Analytics
Yes is at 7.4%, down 22 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 17 Jan 2026.
Across the 266 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3% on 18 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.1%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 18.5% on 18 Jan 2026.
$123 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $17.82K since listing. The order book holds $1.26K, with a 8.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 288 trades, $910.92 bought Yes and $4.91K bought No.
The largest Yes position is miazagsc with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Moribundus with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 87.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 266 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 29.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Moribundus | No | 3.37K |
| miazagsc | Yes | 1.8K |
| MasonsConqueredRome | Yes | 1.5K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-george-r-r-martin-announce-the-winds-of-winter-in-2026
| aviato |
| No |
| 1K |
| JonasB | Yes | 561.51 |
| thursdays | Yes | 324 |
| Inchoroi | No | 300 |
| daiphoenix | No | 210.28 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 135 |
| Bthfdji | Yes | 134.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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