Analytics
Resolved Yes on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.5%. Yes opened at 91.8% on 6 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.3% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 91.8% on 6 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.2 points up, to 97% on 7 Oct 2026. $6.3K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 3:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 91.8% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 97.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.09K |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 684.3 |
| richyee | No | 100 |
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-espirito-santo
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| .Menthe |
| No |
| 50 |
| PPMT | No | 44.81 |
| a5533 | No | 20 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | No | 14 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | No | 14 |
| Celebrated-Howard | No | 5.1 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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