Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 5.6% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22.1% on 5 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 22.1% on 5 Aug 2026. $4.8K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 29, 11:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 5.6% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.41K |
| balthazar | Yes | 2.11K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 1.25K |
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-israeli-elections-before-government-formed-20260728195012183
| Mazkirut | Yes | 804.65 |
| xeeraz | Yes | 640.16 |
| TheJewishHammer | Yes | 631.01 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 560 |
| Affectionate-Monger | Yes | 475 |
| northdrawer | Yes | 430 |
| musaftw | Yes | 338.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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