Analytics
Yes is at 34%, up 21 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 7 Jul 2026.
Across the 109 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.5% on 15 Sep 2026 and the lowest 8% on 8 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 21%; a month before, 19.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 34% on 19 Aug 2026.
Eric Jones ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)”. Mike Thompson leads at 65.5%.
$282.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.43K since listing. The order book holds $35.02K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 300 trades, $1.13K bought Yes and $1.27K bought No.
The largest Yes position is kittycat67 with 562 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 76% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 5 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 109 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 13.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 35.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.27K |
| goingsocial | No | 1.22K |
| kittycat67 | Yes | 562 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-04-house-election-winner-by-individual-20260630172946503
| PCMTest |
| Yes |
| 328 |
| 4sales | Yes | 302 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 297.75 |
| algo168 | Yes | 289.94 |
| Ribot | Yes | 279.49 |
| bananabreakfast | Yes | 256 |
| ABC12345654321 | Yes | 224.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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