Analytics
Yes is at 65.5%, down 20 points from 85.5% when the market opened on 7 Jul 2026.
Across the 109 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87.5% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 62.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 78%; a month before, 77.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 66.5% on 19 Aug 2026.
Mike Thompson is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)”, ahead of Eric Jones at 34.5%.
$346.38 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $12.83K since listing. The order book holds $31.11K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 227 trades, $2.27K bought Yes and $1.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is goingsocial with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 77.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 5 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 109 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 50%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 85.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 65.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| goingsocial | Yes | 1.33K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.25K |
| cosmicsteaks | No | 787 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-04-house-election-winner-by-individual-20260630172946503
| Hot-SkullHomelessBegger |
| Yes |
| 505.4 |
| eqzwe103qwie | No | 464 |
| 74-75 | Yes | 402.3 |
| oliman2 | No | 351.41 |
| GUINESS123 | Yes | 330 |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 284 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 274.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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