Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 6 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 57 daily closes on record from 6 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 12.5% on 16 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Jul 2025. $148.79K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 4:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 6 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jun 2025 | 6.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| froggyxbt | Yes | 4.69K |
| Enochbtc | Yes | 1.93K |
| Gozadordelarosada | Yes | 1.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly supports or endorses the "One Big Beautiful Bill" by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Musk must clearly express support for the bill as a whole—e.g., calling for its passage or praising it. Support for individual components, vague or sarcastic statements, or ambiguous statements will not qualify. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" refers to the Trump administration's flagship 2025 legislative package—introduced as a budget reconciliation bill and described by Trump or the White House as the "Big Beautiful Bill." Substantial amendments or renaming will not disqualify it, so long as the bill remains a budget reconciliation bill that includes major federal tax policy changes. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-endorse-the-big-beautiful-bill
| Yes |
| 1K |
| Chumito | Yes | 560.98 |
| a007zaki | Yes | 499.73 |
| cowcat | Yes | 409 |
| Organic-Blowhole | Yes | 376.26 |
| asdflkj | Yes | 280.25 |
| lissartter | Yes | 142.53 |
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