Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 15 points from 20% when the market opened on 18 Sep 2026.
Across the 33 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 9% on 19 Sep 2026.
Sullivan 3-6% ranks sixth of the 10 outcomes in “Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)”. Peltola 3-6% leads at 30%; Peltola 0-3% is at 27%.
$10.27K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $18.38K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 104 trades, $261.94 bought Yes and $3.41K bought No; the largest was a $2.09K buy of No at 87.6¢.
The largest Yes position is autisem with 600 shares; the largest No position is vinii with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 92.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 20.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vinii | No | 1.23K |
| autisem | Yes | 600 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 499.15 |
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-margin-of-victory-first-round
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 475.81 |
| anoin123 | Yes | 223.02 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 90.67 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 59 |
| mikjriud | Yes | 50 |
| LucaSouls10 | Yes | 50 |
| alfonse3 | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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