Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 18 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 5 Oct 2026, the highest close was 28.7% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 18 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 17.5% on 25 Sep 2026. $5.08K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 5 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 2.9% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.46K |
| archaic | Yes | 1.42K |
| Violet Vector B29E | Yes | 336.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/amapa-governor-election-winner
| Yes |
| 327.35 |
| Amber Kestrel 5323 | Yes | 315.43 |
| ACara | Yes | 147.47 |
| Natsan | Yes | 56 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 50.38 |
| Forsaken-Disdain | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.99 |
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