Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2026 to 1 Jun 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jun 2026. $600.1K traded over the market's life.
207 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 2, 4:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 28 Mar 2026 – 1 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 99problems123 | Yes | 20.89K |
| 8auk6WK | Yes | 10K |
| drakelong | Yes | 8.96K |
| troim | Yes | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by
| TulipoII | Yes | 4.24K |
| beata-monalisa | Yes | 4.12K |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 3.94K |
| orzanovn | Yes | 3K |
| D-Star | Yes | 2.61K |
| Got2Luvya | Yes | 1.94K |
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