Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 41% on 19 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2026 to 31 Jul 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 19 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 13.5% on 22 Jul 2026. $2.02K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 8:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 19 Jul 2026 – 31 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2026 | 41.0% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 755.42 |
| akko123 | Yes | 300 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-leader-of-germanys-union-cducsu-20260718204733993
| Yes |
| 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Neon Ledger 121C | Yes | 64.25 |
| TeenagePanda | Yes | 30 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 14.82 |
| 0f7l492ysa4r3 | Yes | 10.64 |
| tweetmaster | Yes | 7 |
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