Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 35 points from 50% when the market opened on 28 Jun 2026.
Across the 122 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 28 Jun 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 14 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 10% on 30 Jun 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “What price will Cap hit in 2026?”.
$4.5K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $223.57, with a 19.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 79 trades, $343.2 bought Yes and $332.83 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Vagabund97 with 165 shares; the largest No position is mefirofan with 412.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 122 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mefirofan | No | 412 |
| Vagabund97 | Yes | 165.01 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 125.16 |
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Bybit 1-minute candle for Cap (CAP/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is Bybit, specifically the CAP/USDT “High” and "Low" prices available at: https://www.bybit.com/en/trade/spot/CAP/USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Bybit CAP/USDT price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-cap-hit-in-2026
| Gaujmalietis |
| No |
| 79.5 |
| hopolopop | Yes | 50 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 45 |
| pppnn | Yes | 40 |
| mlbboy1k | Yes | 29 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 20 |
| smarterstrat | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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