Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 25.5%. Yes opened at 74% on 16 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 69 daily closes on record from 16 Aug 2025 to 23 Oct 2025, the highest close was 74% on 16 Aug 2025 and the lowest 17% on 17 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 35.5% on 17 Aug 2025. $14.52K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 4:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 16 Aug 2025 – 23 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | 74.0% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | 25.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sisyphos | No | 212.63 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 145 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 134 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces that he is running for President of Brazil in the 2026 presidential election, between August 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Lula will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Lula (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-brazilian-president-lula-announce-re-election-run-by-december-31
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Yes |
| 40.26 |
| ItamarBleinad | No | 21.03 |
| Eh-he | No | 14.08 |
| Deafening-Possible | No | 14 |
| NoGlory | No | 7.58 |
| oak | No | 6 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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