Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 19, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy World leaders

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 19 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 86%. Yes opened at 49% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 17 Mar 2026 to 19 Mar 2026, the highest close was 86% on 19 Mar 2026 and the lowest 49% on 17 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 70.5% on 18 Mar 2026.

18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 20, 5:28 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 19 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
17 Mar 2026	49.0%
19 Mar 2026	86.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
MartySupreme123	No	5K
LukeGamma	No	2K
TENETENET	No	428.56

10 of 18 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini are not the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no listed AI app is the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).