Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.8%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 25 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 28 Apr 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.8% on 28 Apr 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 25 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 62 points up, to 96.8% on 28 Apr 2026. $5.95K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 18, 8:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 28 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 6.5% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 96.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| warptrading | No | 113.63 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| xiaodouzi | No | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026
| triklozoid | No | 50 |
| OneChina | No | 19.48 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 7 |
| Grandiose-Layer | No | 5 |
| Weepy-Item | No | 5 |
| Rotten-Venti | No | 5 |
| i-race | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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