Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, up 2 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 18 Jul 2026.
Across the 99 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.2% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.7% on 25 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16.3%; a month before, 6.4%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 39.2% on 14 Oct 2026.
$2.17K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $154.74, with a 23.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 47 trades, $95 bought Yes and $396.66 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 144 shares; the largest No position is ACDawg with 115.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 99 points, 18 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | 13.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 144.24 |
| ACDawg | No | 114.65 |
| i400 | No | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ArrowCS eats a bug during any livestreams between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Eating a bug" refers to ArrowCS placing any part of the body of an insect or other arthropod (such as a cricket, ant, beetle, or similar) into his mouth and closing his mouth during a live broadcast. A qualifying bug may be alive, dead, cooked, raw, or otherwise prepared provided it is a recognizable part of the body of an insect or other arthropod. The relevant part of the body of an insect or other arthropod must be a discrete item and retain its original physical form. Processed or insect-derived products, such as insect flour, protein bars, or snacks containing ground insects, will not count. ArrowCS must close his mouth with the relevant bug inside, defined as his two lips being completely shut. Merely holding, licking, or placing a bug in the mouth without closure will not count. If he later removes the bug from his mouth after a qualifying action, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. The full act as described above must be clearly broadcast on a livestream to qualify. Pre-recorded or edited footage that is not part of a live broadcast will not count. The resolution source for this market will be qualifying livestream footage.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-arrowcs-eat-a-bug-on-stream-by-december-31-20260715213055256
| Hot-Skull |
| Yes |
| 61 |
| title1 | Yes | 54.97 |
| Crowded-Congregation-Bracelet | No | 43.84 |
| Debeli | No | 40 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 23 |
| Squiggly-Description | Yes | 20 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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