Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 31% on 20 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 125 daily closes on record from 20 Nov 2025 to 29 Mar 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32% on 27 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 6% on 29 Nov 2025. $51.84K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 125 points, 20 Nov 2025 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2025 | 31.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | Yes | 2.3K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-arc-launch-a-token-by
| asfdt22 | Yes | 200 |
| MariaMoss3907 | Yes | 107 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 50 |
| Knobby-Legal | Yes | 50 |
| yoyo424269 | Yes | 42 |
| itopcast | No | 17.51 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 14.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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