
Yes is at 41.5%, down 9.5 points from 51% when the market opened on 13 May 2026.
Across the 162 daily closes on record from 13 May 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 21 May 2026 and the lowest 33% on 9 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 42.5%; a month before, 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 88% on 14 May 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?”.
$1.12K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $20.12K since listing. The order book holds $1.37K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is hitjnn214 with 8.3K shares; the largest No position is twe2nty with 6K. Ten wallets hold 96% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 162 points, 13 May 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | 51.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 44.0% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-arc-launch-a-token-by
| dima23000 |
| No |
| 607.74 |
| MaxEnt | Yes | 304.99 |
| Moist-Eve | Yes | 228.33 |
| AJSV | Yes | 209.35 |
| daweishashax | No | 200 |
| airdropsoon | Yes | 118.61 |
| magicdogs | Yes | 110.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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