Analytics
Yes is at 27%, up 5.5 points from 21.5% when the market opened on 9 Apr 2026.
Across the 186 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (18 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 10 Jun 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 11 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23%; a month before, 19.5%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 29.5% on 20 Jul 2026.
$33.51K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $130.99, with a 44.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 257 trades, $1.08K bought Yes and $15.8K bought No.
The largest Yes position is whumpa with 201 shares; the largest No position is geowatch with 400. Ten wallets hold 76.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 64 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 186 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 21.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 27.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-december-31
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 165.15 |
| Razirback | Yes | 131.56 |
| rocky42025 | Yes | 120.91 |
| Mazil | No | 107.61 |
| Arashi9527 | No | 75 |
| Ruxpin84 | Yes | 73.51 |
| alfredon996 | No | 57.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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