Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 50% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 18 Mar 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 5 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 15 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 17% on 6 Feb 2026.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 19, 9:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 18 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lineth | Yes | 7.45K |
| singularityman | Yes | 1.59K |
| Spectrum | Yes | 334 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-candidate-win-the-texas-republican-senate-primary-outright
| bjprolo | Yes | 60 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 28 |
| Aggravating-Plane | Yes | 23.25 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 14.98 |
| Swift Atlas F137 | Yes | 8.68 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
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