Analytics
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“Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by September 15?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Anthropic resets Claude usage limit by...?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Sep 16, 2026. As of Sep 14, 8:34 AM, Yes trades at 6.7¢, a 6.7% implied chance, $755.52 traded in the last 24 hours, $235.77 resting in the order book, a 7.3% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 14, 2026 (Yes between 5.9% and 11.1%); 12 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 95.8% of the loaded shares; 13 recent public fills from 10 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic resets Claude subscription usage limits by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by Anthropic that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the 5-hour or weekly usage counters for paid Claude subscription users, or grants those users a reset that Anthropic characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing counters, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of Anthropic API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated after the creation of this market will be considered. An official announcement stating that Anthropic has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will qualify if published within the market's timeframe, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official Anthropic accounts such as ClaudeDevs, for example: https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2077603834453770467. The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Anthropic, including those published by @AnthropicAI, @ClaudeDevs, or any other Anthropic-operated account on X, as well as official Anthropic blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-reset-claude-usage-limit-by-september-30-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| melonmanm | No | 268.19 |
| nana130299 | Yes | 60 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 42 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 40 |
| Solar Summit 0A64 | Yes | 40 |
| NoTeacher | No | 30.81 |
| a5533 | Yes | 30 |
| hollowbyte9 | Yes | 21.84 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 20 |
| Coral Voyager D8CE | Yes | 19.6 |