Analytics
Yes is at 59%, up 7 points from 52% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 25 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.5% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 52% on 2 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 73.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 67.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
Anthropic is the favourite of the 21 outcomes in “Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?”, ahead of OpenAI at 19.1%.
$2.04K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.51K since listing. The order book holds $244.35, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 170 trades, $1.45K bought Yes and $949.88 bought No.
The largest Yes position is molodoyy with 251 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 293. Ten wallets hold 72.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 59.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 292.72 |
| molodoyy | Yes | 250.67 |
| X-Rabbit.Sezu | Yes | 168 |
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-overall-end-of-november
9 more outcomes, none above 0.5%.
| xtxpleasecallme |
| No |
| 163.73 |
| lissartter | No | 136.76 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 93.8 |
| hfv | Yes | 70.8 |
| cigarettes | No | 60 |
| t081482 | Yes | 40 |
| youtube-trader | No | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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