Analytics
Yes is at 99.1%, up 45 points from 54.5% when the market opened on 14 Aug 2026.
Across the 75 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.1% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 54.5% on 14 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 86%; a month before, 84%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 78.5% on 25 Aug 2026.
Anthropic is the favourite of the 18 outcomes in “Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?”, ahead of OpenAI at 2%.
$81.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $47.23K since listing. The order book holds $258.09, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.86K bought Yes and $504.65 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Watchful-Fund with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.1K. Ten wallets hold 80.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 54.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 99.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.1K |
| Watchful-Fund | Yes | 1.28K |
| X10X10 | Yes | 1.09K |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-agent-end-of-october
6 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| X-Rabbit.Sezu |
| Yes |
| 1.01K |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 654.63 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 262 |
| Jocelin | Yes | 215.17 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 202.12 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 160.89 |
| Beneficial-Hull | Yes | 122.92 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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