Analytics
Yes is at 19.5%, down 60 points from 79.5% when the market opened on 19 Sep 2026.
Across the 38 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 79.5% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 19.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 35%; a month before, 76.5%. Its largest one-day move was 54 points down, to 22.5% on 1 Oct 2026.
Anthropic ranks second of the 21 outcomes in “Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)”. Google leads at 71.5%; Meta is at 8%.
$306.72 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $12.23K since listing. The order book holds $1.01K, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 291 trades, $2.15K bought Yes and $2.07K bought No.
The largest Yes position is vtx with 700 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 90.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 19 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | 79.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.51K |
| vtx | Yes | 700 |
| 0xzipper | Yes | 574.05 |
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-november-style-control-on
9 more outcomes, none above 0.2%.
| X10X10 |
| No |
| 520 |
| X-Rabbit.Sezu | Yes | 450.63 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 207.76 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 177.33 |
| molodoyy | Yes | 167.09 |
| pykue | No | 160 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 137.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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