Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 12, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$91.4K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 12, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 12 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 45.5%. Yes opened at 36% on 16 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 16 Jul 2025 to 12 Aug 2025, the highest close was 54.5% on 12 Aug 2025 and the lowest 34% on 17 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 54.5% on 12 Aug 2025. $91.41K traded over the market's life.

63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 13, 4:45 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 16 Jul 2025 – 12 Aug 2025, chart shows 20%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
16 Jul 2025	36.0%
12 Aug 2025	54.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	58.41K
Monocular	Yes	3.17K
Mimn	Yes	2.55K
inflater	Yes	2K

10 of 63 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending July 2025 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12 month period ending in July 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.