Analytics
Yes is at 61.5%, up 2 points from 59.5% when the market opened on 19 Aug 2026.
Across the 68 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 71% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 71%; a month before, 66%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 36% on 29 Sep 2026.
President is the favourite of the 3 outcomes in “Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?”, ahead of Senate at 29.9%.
$48K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $27.09K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 461 trades, $8.85K bought Yes and $6.35K bought No; the largest was a $3.2K buy of No at 32.9¢.
The largest Yes position is l3t0 with 4.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 7.7K. Ten wallets hold 92.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 68 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 59.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 61.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.71K |
| DirkDiggler67 | No | 4.7K |
| l3t0 | Yes | 4.61K |
This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-aoc-announce-a-run-for-senate-or-president-before-2028
| Gladius7 |
| Yes |
| 1.75K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 1.53K |
| Bright Sphinx 1B73 | Yes | 1.16K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 1.11K |
| BikesAreTheBikes | Yes | 882.35 |
| MrMelonHead | Yes | 810.86 |
| donthackme | No | 682.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
