Analytics
Yes is at 13%, up 1.5 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 46 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 10 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18%; a month before, 27.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 34% on 11 Sep 2026.
1 ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?”. 0 leads at 76%; 2 is at 4.2%.
$61.71K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $5.27K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.89K bought Yes and $13.32K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 0xdc3E831cad with 5.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 26.1K. Ten wallets hold 85.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 11.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 13.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 26.06K |
| 0xdc3E831cad | Yes | 5.45K |
| iHaveBeenPwned | Yes | 4.63K |
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| katakuri-haki | Yes | 2.8K |
| rewardbots | Yes | 2.72K |
| scrible | Yes | 1.41K |
| 6742 | Yes | 1.28K |
| TradeDeficitArchitect | Yes | 1.09K |
| L1quid | Yes | 1K |
| Gdub | No | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-millennium-prize-problems-will-ai-solve-in-2026
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