
Yes is at 2.9%, down 64 points from 66.5% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2026.
Across the 96 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 25 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 11 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.6%; a month before, 11.3%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 38.4% on 13 Sep 2026.
$4.47K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $857.81, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 116 trades, $224.23 bought Yes and $1.92K bought No; the largest was a $1.2K buy of No at 93.9¢.
The largest Yes position is 1walrus with 1K shares; the largest No position is rabbit007 with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 93.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 96 points, 25 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | 66.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rabbit007 | No | 1.83K |
| 1walrus | Yes | 1K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 449.93 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.
| paineater |
| Yes |
| 135.17 |
| DowJones2 | No | 75.72 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 70 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 70 |
| BeeYou | Yes | 61.06 |
| LonelyScissors | Yes | 60.46 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 42.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039
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