Who will 538 predict to win the election?

politicsResolved

Harris, settled Nov 5, 2024 UTC

Harris

100.0%

Trump

0.0%

Final Harris 100¢Final Trump 0¢

Lifetime volume

$475.3K

Resolved

Harris

Settled

Nov 5, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Harris on 5 Nov 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Harris at 11.5%. The Harris side opened at 67% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2024 to 5 Nov 2024, the highest close was 67% on 12 Oct 2024 and the lowest 9% on 30 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 16.5% on 4 Nov 2024. $475.34K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 6, 7:17 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Harris price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 5 Nov 2024

Harris price, first and latest
Observed	Harris price
12 Oct 2024	67.0%
5 Nov 2024	11.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TheDuck	Trump	1.05K
Swift Tide CF70	Harris	1.56
RememberAmalek	Trump	1.47
Emerald Harbor F255	Trump	0.54

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Harris" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election . This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100")