Analytics
Yes is at 61.5%, up 9.5 points from 52% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 87 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68.5% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 39.5% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 53.5%; a month before, 44%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 68.5% on 8 Aug 2026.
$199.03 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.11K since listing. The order book holds $3.65K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 77 trades, $430.16 bought Yes and $381.47 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Cosmic Orbit 0ACB with 210 shares; the largest No position is Winged-Holder with 151. Ten wallets hold 96.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 52.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 61.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cosmic Orbit 0ACB | Yes | 209.9 |
| Winged-Holder | No | 151.33 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 143.03 |
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/washington-passes-ballot-measure-restricting-transgender-school-sports-access-20260729161600533
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 102.04 |
| wallet-account-test | No | 60 |
| cosmicsteaks | No | 59.57 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 42.23 |
| Hot-Skull | Yes | 21.5 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 19.99 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 12.93 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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