Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 31 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2024 to 1 Sep 2024, the highest close was 16% on 1 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 10.5% on 3 Aug 2024. $54.96K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 5:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 31 Jul 2024 – 1 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2024 | 13.5% |
| 1 Sep 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TriaKube | Yes | 1.88K |
| Precious-Tile | Yes | 244.12 |
| Arhiman | Yes | 125 |
| jfehefj | Yes | 41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel from a country other than Venezuela conduct officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operations on the ground within the sovereign territory of Venezuela intended to establish increased national security or stability between July 20, 2024 and August 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping and/or security operations must involve that country's physical police or military presence within the sovereign territory of Venezuela. For the purposes of this market, "police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance or intelligence performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc. Security actions undertaken by a country exclusively to protect, evacuate, or maintain the safety of its embassy and personnel within Venezuela will not qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign police, military, peacekeeping, or security intervention from the foreign government making the intervention. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/venezuela-intervention-by-august-31
| anon12394 | Yes | 1.33 |
| story | Yes | 0.15 |
| interestedinyou | Yes | 0.13 |
| mushrumguy | Yes | 0.07 |
| NiggaCat | No | 0.01 |
| JishWa | No | 0.01 |
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