Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 7% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 7.1% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Feb 2026. $106.11K traded over the market's life.
83 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 7.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Humiliating-Watercress | Yes | 1.83K |
| venimiceblade | Yes | 740.74 |
| Neon Voyager C61F | Yes | 724.01 |
| LukeAlpha | Yes | 700.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the US and Venezuela between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the US and Venezuela; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the US and Venezuela has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-ceasefire-by-january-31
| GTANDA | Yes | 628.67 |
| Motionless-Smile | Yes | 476.43 |
| Tjavz69 | Yes | 385.08 |
| egonzalez7 | Yes | 367.09 |
| MASEN | Yes | 330 |
| atomato | Yes | 305.49 |
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