Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 26 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 53.5% on 10 Sep 2025 and the low 0.3% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 47.5% on 2 Sep 2025. $79.29K traded over the market's life.
73 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 130 points, 26 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2025 | 42.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sia58 | Yes | 1K |
| Scrawny-Mole | Yes | 913.76 |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 478.13 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On June 13, Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually. Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify. Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-nuclear-talks-resume-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 447 |
| kamarat | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 231.93 |
| 854A7843 | Yes | 217 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 213 |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 200 |
| Kingjusti | Yes | 196.16 |
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