
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 5 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 88 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 3 Apr 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 10 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 25.5% on 10 Jan 2026. $1.47M traded over the market's life.
392 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 88 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 3 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 5.5% |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Occasional-Tilt | Yes | 52.66K |
| Chileno901 | Yes | 30.57K |
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Yes | 25.07K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-mexico-by
| 49an9bZ3jai | Yes | 24.9K |
| Daustin79 | Yes | 12.96K |
| topbanana | Yes | 10K |
| Kellly045 | Yes | 7.26K |
| Selfish-Embryo | Yes | 6.66K |
| Monopoly_Money | Yes | 6.4K |
| jmarcafella | Yes | 5.71K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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