Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 26% on 7 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2026 to 16 Mar 2026, the highest close was 32.5% on 8 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 16 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 13.5% on 9 Mar 2026.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 17, 4:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 7 Mar 2026 – 16 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | 26.0% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Leon8899 | Yes | 1K |
| pftw | Yes | 900 |
| Naughty-Pass | Yes | 611.46 |
| Charming-Tophat | Yes | 250 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an Iran-linked oil tanker between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker” refers to the seizure of any oil ship which is described by a consensus of credible sources as Iranian, Iran-linked, or as directly and regularly involved in the transportation of Iranian oil. A tanker’s limited prior transportation of Iranian oil, without such a qualifying description, will not alone qualify. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-seizes-an-iran-linked-oil-tanker-by-march-7
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| 5atka | Yes | 183.14 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 149.99 |
| Short-Training | Yes | 147.15 |
| zakmaestro | Yes | 140.56 |
| Quiet Beacon 33A3 | Yes | 129.58 |
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