Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 28 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 28 May 2025 to 2 Jul 2025, the highest close was 38% on 13 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 2 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 37% on 18 Jun 2025. $65.84K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 28 May 2025 – 2 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 May 2025 | 11.5% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kapi777 | Yes | 1.19K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| alohapancake94 | Yes | 100.14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between May 27 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. U.S. intelligence, logistical support, or targeting assistance for another country’s attack on Yemen will not qualify. Only direct U.S. use of force on Yemeni territory counts. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-on-yemen-before-july
| Yes |
| 100 |
| kanasl | No | 95.67 |
| Butterpickledhead | Yes | 89.57 |
| Sandor01 | Yes | 43.39 |
| novusprospectus | Yes | 29.41 |
| James245 | Yes | 27.35 |
| Earnest-Honesty | Yes | 20.02 |
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