Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 9 points from 16% when the market opened on 15 Jul 2026.
Across the 102 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 23 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 11 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 7%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 59% on 23 Jul 2026.
$190 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.02K since listing. The order book holds $807.03, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 117 trades, $698.31 bought Yes and $1.96K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 676767676767 with 847 shares; the largest No position is VLamarca with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 82% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 102 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 16.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| VLamarca | No | 1.93K |
| 676767676767 | Yes | 847.07 |
| horatio | Yes | 845.58 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". “Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify. To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient. A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted. A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect. Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify. Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-bans-an-open-source-ai-model-in-2026-20260703221501747
| molodoyy |
| Yes |
| 445.4 |
| imakebigbets | No | 400 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 382.45 |
| Perypery | Yes | 376.69 |
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 308.39 |
| purplegatto | Yes | 200 |
| AlexZ7 | No | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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