Analytics
Yes is at 90.5%, up 20 points from 71% at 21 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Across 14 price reads from 21 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC to 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC, the highest read was 90.5% on 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC and the lowest 71% on 21 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
It is one of 2 markets under “US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by...?”.
$1.27K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.73K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 31 trades, $756.02 bought Yes and $20.84 bought No.
The largest Yes position is chonkychick with 665 shares; the largest No position is sdfsdfsdfsdf2 with 324. Ten wallets hold 96.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 71 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 12:58 PM UTC
Hourly closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 21 Oct, 17:00 UTC – 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 17:00 UTC | 71.0% |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 90.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chonkychick | Yes | 665.37 |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf2 | No | 324 |
| lissartter | No | 130.48 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) adds CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 (the critical PHP vulnerabilities known as “PHP2Shell”) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gov-confirms-php2shell-exploited-byptptpt
| AJSV |
| No |
| 97.99 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 88.05 |
| Numitus1994 | No | 51 |
| spxtest | Yes | 50 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 40 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 21.99 |
| Slackjaw | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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