Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 6 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 86 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2024 to 30 Oct 2024, the highest close was 13% on 9 Aug 2024 and the lowest 1.1% on 20 Oct 2024. $346.72K traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 1:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 86 points, 6 Aug 2024 – 30 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | 12.5% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ggt | Yes | 29.57K |
| aasafjksfhew | Yes | 999.99 |
| pooopou | Yes | 971.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q3 of 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, specifically the GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2024. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product The BEA's GDP release for Q3 of 2024 is scheduled for October 30, 2024. Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-declines-in-q3-2024
| Yes |
| 776.54 |
| Keen Meteor 33B0 | Yes | 387.14 |
| Not.Sure | Yes | 312.5 |
| Poor-Survival | Yes | 111.11 |
| cedriccroze | Yes | 100 |
| hadiaghanaghi | Yes | 99.95 |
| fhgnrfbnbdh | Yes | 81.96 |
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