Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.7%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 24 Dec 2025, the highest close was 14.5% on 23 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.4% on 24 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 1.4% on 24 Dec 2025. $45.6K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 25, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 24 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 14.5% |
| 24 Dec 2025 | 1.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| imtryingtomakeitout | Yes | 531.83 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 388 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 365 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 234 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize another ship that is transporting, or is intended to transport, oil to or from Venezuela by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-seize-another-venezuela-linked-oil-ship-in-2025-451
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 187 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 179 |
| Faquarl | Yes | 134.21 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 120 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 113 |
| Upset-Fedora | Yes | 105.26 |
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