
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 71% on 16 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 352 daily closes on record from 16 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 71% on 16 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 24 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 57.2% on 4 Mar 2025. $128.94K traded over the market's life.
92 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 352 points, 16 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2025 | 71.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| olibor69 | Yes | 1.31K |
| Jonnystacks16 | Yes | 545.45 |
| fead | Yes | 416.72 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-in-2025
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 354 |
| Mangy62 | Yes | 250 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 248 |
| Emerald Scout 635F | Yes | 215.36 |
| Jade Ledger A1A8 | Yes | 174 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 144.13 |
| lissartter | Yes | 128.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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