Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 13 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 37.5% on 13 Feb 2026 and the low 0.5% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 19.5% on 4 Mar 2026. $20.24K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 9:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 46 points · 13 Feb 2026 – 1 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | 37.5% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| darkflamemaster | Yes | 342.63 |
| Aslan | Yes | 300 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| markb0t11 | Yes | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US military or federal government downs or disables any Mexican cartel drone by any means (including kinetic, laser, jammer, etc.) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any drone whose operation is broadly attributed to a Mexican drug cartel or any Narco-trafficking organization based in Mexico by a consensus of credible reporting will be considered a “Mexican cartel drone.” The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-downs-a-mexican-cartel-drone-by-march-31
| MetaProphet | Yes | 160 |
| EinPilsimWald | Yes | 100 |
| zabaniya6666 | Yes | 100 |
| Rogereur | Yes | 90.91 |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 80 |
| 5atka | Yes | 79.11 |
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