Analytics
Resolved Yes on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 15% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 99.6% on 31 Jan 2026 and the low 12.5% on 18 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 81 points up, to 99.6% on 31 Jan 2026. $77.58K traded over the market's life.
66 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 15.0% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | No | 1.5K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 653 |
| oak | No | 491.98 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 449 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 383 |
| LukeAlpha | No | 350 |
| kamarat | No | 350 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 225 |
| Grouchy-Dining | No | 175.82 |
| Cr777777 | No | 166.27 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-by-february-28
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