Analytics
Yes is at 72.5%, up 16 points from 56% when the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 75.5% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 34.5% on 11 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 58.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 69% on 17 Oct 2026.
$203.69 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.5K since listing. The order book holds $1.67K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 144 trades, $3.41K bought Yes and $587.02 bought No; the largest was a $1.91K buy of Yes at 47.0¢.
The largest Yes position is spacegliderr with 1K shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 403. Ten wallets hold 92.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 56.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 75.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| spacegliderr | Yes | 1.03K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 402.71 |
| RayGuy | No | 340 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-by-december-31-2026-20260928
| StarMaster |
| No |
| 172.17 |
| hfv | No | 156.6 |
| LehmanBrother2.0 | Yes | 153.34 |
| 2B9S | No | 47.69 |
| nanioto | No | 27 |
| T22222222222 | No | 20.01 |
| lissartter | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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